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DOC版28摩根斯坦利最新美元走势研究报告，宏观一点，不过很有价值MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.EconomicTrendsDecember6,2004AndyXieWeakerDollar,MoreUSDeficitsRECENTREPORTSIndia:LetAThousandCranesBloomAndyXieDecember2,2004Asia/Pacific:AsiaCanDefendItselfAndyXieNovember29,2004Asia/Pacific:AsiaShouldSellTreasuriesNowAndyXieNovember23,2004•StructuralconsumptionbiasinUSandinvestmentbiasinAsiacauseimbalanceAsia’seconomiesoftengrowthroughtheencouragementofpropertyspeculation,whichcausespropertypricestobehighrelativetoproductivecapitalandproducesexcessivecapitalformationforexports.TheUStendstogrowitseconomybycreatingconsumptionbiasesinitsincentiveregime.Thecontrastresultsinanever-wideningglobalimbalance.•TheUSeconomymustslowsothatthetradedeficitnarrowsUSmacropolicyisstilltoostimulatory,causingtheeconomytogrowfasterthanothermajoreconomiesandincreasingthetradedeficit.ThisisabiggerfactorthantheweakerdollarincausingtheUStradedeficittowiden.TheUSmustslowitseconomybyraisinginterestratesandloweringthefiscaldeficittostabilizethetradedeficit.•TheworldcannotgrowatitspotentialwithoutdegradingbalancesheetsThestructuraldifferencesbetweenAmericaandAsiawouldcauseadegradingofglobalbalancesheetswhentheglobaleconomygrowsatitspotential.Structuralchangesarerequiredfortheglobaleconomytorealizeitsfullpotential.
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